The San Diego Padres’ starting rotation is nearly set, with three—and likely four—spots locked in, leaving a fierce competition for the remaining roles. But here’s where it gets controversial: who will step up to fill those final spots, and will the Padres’ strategy pay off?
In Peoria, Arizona, the Padres’ camp buzzes with anticipation, but it’s important to read between the lines when interpreting manager Craig Stammen’s recent comments. When jokingly asked about naming a starting pitcher for the March 26 season opener against the Tigers, Stammen quipped, ‘We’ve got a lot of opening-day starters.’ While this might sound like boasting, the reality is more nuanced. In truth, the Padres have only one clear candidate for the opening-day nod: Nick Pivetta. And this is the part most people miss: Pivetta’s stellar 2025 season, where he posted a career-best 2.87 ERA over 181.2 innings, makes him the undeniable choice—barring injury.
Stammen’s point, however, was that the Padres are confident in their top rotation arms. Michael King, the 2025 opening-day starter, returns after testing free agency, and Joe Musgrove, who started the home opener in 2022 and key games in 2024, is back after recovering from Tommy John surgery. ‘We’re very excited with the starting staff we have,’ Stammen said. But the real question remains: who follows Pivetta, King, and Musgrove?
‘We’ve got good pitchers to choose from,’ Stammen added, ‘but it’s a competition for spots four through seven.’ The Padres are eyeing a veteran starter to bolster this competition, though budget constraints mean they’re likely waiting for prices to drop as the season approaches. With nine pitchers boasting significant major league experience and three minor leaguers in the mix, the battle is intense.
Here’s where opinions will clash: which of these candidates deserves a spot? Let’s break down the contenders:
Probably No. 4
Randy Vásquez: The 27-year-old right-hander has been a reliable workhorse since joining the Padres in 2024, posting a 3.84 ERA last season and helping the team to a 17-9 record in his starts. With no option remaining, he’s a strong contender.
Four for One?
Marco Gonzales: At 33, the left-hander brings 162 starts and nearly 1,000 innings of MLB experience. However, he’s returning from flexor tendon surgery, raising questions about his readiness. His major league assignment clause adds another layer of complexity.
Triston McKenzie: Once a strikeout machine, the 28-year-old right-hander has battled injuries and inconsistency since 2022. Now on a minor-league deal, he’s fighting to reclaim his form.
JP Sears: After a disappointing 5.47 ERA in five starts last season, the 29-year-old lefty is looking to rebound. His optionable status gives the Padres flexibility.
Matt Waldron: The 29-year-old knuckleballer faces a make-or-break moment. Out of options, he’s either the fifth starter or off the roster. His 2.76 ERA over 14 starts in 2024 is promising, but consistency remains his biggest hurdle.
Probably a Different Role
Kyle Hart: The 33-year-old lefty showed promise in the bullpen in 2025, but with a crowded relief corps, his role is uncertain. He’s optionable, adding to the complexity.
Probably Depth
Jagger Haynes: At 23, the left-hander’s 95 mph fastball is impressive, but control issues likely mean a return to the minors.
Miguel Mendez: The 23-year-old righty is on the fast track to San Diego, though not likely for Opening Day. His upper-90s fastball and slider make him a future asset.
Jackson Wolf: The 26-year-old lefty has just one MLB start under his belt but offers a five-pitch mix that could provide emergency relief.
Here’s the bold question: Can the Padres’ rotation depth overcome the uncertainty in the final spots, or will it be their Achilles’ heel? Share your thoughts in the comments—do you think Stammen’s confidence is justified, or are there red flags we’re overlooking?
