Bold summary: The 2025 NFL playoff picture is shifting now, with Week 15 offering real postseason paths for multiple teams and the potential shock of the Chiefs missing the playoffs after years of near certainty.
In plain terms, nine teams are already eliminated, and three spots remain up for grabs this weekend. New England still has a puncher’s chance to win the AFC East for the first time since 2019. The big drama: the Kansas City Chiefs, a constant in the AFC Championship Game every year since 2019, could be eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday depending on how tiebreakers and other results play out.
Standings and scenarios evolve daily, but here are the latest positions and the key clinching and elimination scenarios ahead of Week 15.
AFC Standings
Division Leaders
- Denver Broncos (11-2; lead AFC West)
- New England Patriots (11-2; lead AFC East)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4; lead AFC South)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6; lead AFC North)
The Jaguars and Steelers claimed their divisions on Sunday, leaving four weeks remaining. Denver jumped to the No. 1 seed over the Patriots based on conference winning percentage, since New England had a bye in Week 14.
Wild-Card Race
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
- Buffalo Bills (9-4)
- Houston Texans (8-5)
The Chargers have endured injury issues along the offensive line, yet coach Jim Harbaugh keeps them winning the games they’re supposed to win. Houston’s defense has become a genuine threat, and the offense has found balance to win consistently.
In the Hunt
- Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
Sunday’s results damaged the Colts’ playoff chances, and injuries worsened after Daniel Jones tore his Achilles. Veteran Philip Rivers was brought in for a workout as a contingency. The Ravens and Chiefs, longtime conference pillars, now face steep odds after their Sunday losses.
Eliminated
- New York Jets (3-10)
- Cleveland Browns (3-10)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
- Tennessee Titans (2-11)
NFC Standings
Division Leaders
- Los Angeles Rams (10-3; lead NFC West)
- Green Bay Packers (9-3-1; lead NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-5; lead NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6; lead NFC South)
The race for the top seed in the NFC looks like a two-team duel between the Rams and Packers, as Philadelphia’s slide continued with a tough overtime loss to the Chargers. Tampa Bay has hit a rough patch, matching Carolina at 7-6 after four losses in five games.
Wild-Card Race
- Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
- San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
- Chicago Bears (9-4)
- Detroit Lions (8-5)
- Carolina Panthers (7-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
The West Coast showdown is the highlight of the NFC, with three teams within a single game of each other. The Seahawks still have to navigate playoff tiebreakers and head-to-heads against the Rams and 49ers in the final stretch. The Bears remain in the mix despite a fall in margin for error, while the Cowboys enjoyed a small lifeline when the Eagles lost, keeping their division hopes alive.
Eliminated
- Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
- New Orleans Saints (3-10)
- Washington Commanders (3-10)
- New York Giants (2-11)
Playoff Clinching Scenarios
New England Patriots Clinch AFC East
- Win vs. Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots Clinch Playoff Berth
- Tie vs. Buffalo Bills AND Jacksonville Jaguars loss vs. New York Jets
- Tie vs. Buffalo Bills AND Los Angeles Chargers loss at Kansas City Chiefs
- Tie vs. Buffalo Bills AND Indianapolis Colts loss/tie at Seattle Seahawks
- Tie vs. Buffalo Bills AND Houston Texans loss/tie vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Indianapolis Colts loss/tie at Seattle Seahawks AND Houston Texans loss/tie vs. Arizona Cardinals (as long as both games don’t end in a tie)
Denver Broncos Clinch Playoff Berth
- Win vs. Green Bay Packers
- Tie vs. Green Bay Packers AND Jacksonville Jaguars loss vs. New York Jets
- Tie vs. Green Bay Packers AND Los Angeles Chargers loss at Kansas City Chiefs
- Tie vs. Green Bay Packers AND Indianapolis Colts loss/tie at Seattle Seahawks
- Tie vs. Green Bay Packers AND Houston Texans loss/tie vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Indianapolis Colts loss/tie at Seattle Seahawks AND Houston Texans loss/tie vs. Arizona Cardinals (as long as both games don’t end in a tie)
Los Angeles Rams Clinch Playoff Berth
- Win vs. Detroit Lions
Playoff Elimination Scenarios
Teams Already Eliminated from Playoff Contention
AFC: New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans
NFC: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders, New York Giants
Official Week 15 elimination scenarios are still to be determined.
