The Hill
(NewsNation) — Elevated mortgage rates have kept buyers on the sidelines, and 2026 is expected to ease that pressure—though not by much.
Housing forecasters anticipate the 30-year fixed rate hovering near 6% next year. That would be lower than this year’s average of about 6.6, yet still far above the sub-3% rates many buyers recall from 2021.
Predicted averages for the 30-year fixed rate in 2026:
- Redfin: 6.3%
- Realtor.com: 6.3%
- Zillow: “hold above 6%”
- National Association of Realtors: 6.0%
- Fannie Mae: 6.0%
If these projections hold, 2026 would prolong the gradual downward drift in borrowing costs, but affordability would still not see a meaningful boost.
Freddie Mac reports the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.22% as of Thursday, down from 6.60% at the same point last year.
Even after the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive rate cut on Wednesday, rates aren’t expected to fall much further. The move was largely anticipated, with markets already priced in.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the recent quarter-point decline wouldn’t make a big difference for the housing market. He noted that inventory remains tight and many households carry very low mortgage rates from the pandemic period.
Why rates are likely to stay near 6% in 2026
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, but its policy moves influence them. After three cuts in 2025, officials don’t foresee substantial reductions next year.
In projections released Wednesday, policymakers show only one rate cut in 2026, suggesting borrowing costs will stay near current levels rather than drop significantly.
According to Redfin economist Chen Zhao, with inflation around 3% and a weakening but not recessionary job market, the Fed is expected to maintain a steady stance in the near term.
That isn’t inherently bad for the economy. A steep drop in mortgage rates could signal inflation or labor-market weakness, so a gradual decline may be healthier overall.
Housing economists anticipate a slow, modest decrease. Redfin thinks rates could dip below 6% temporarily next year, but not for a meaningful stretch.
Realtor.com likewise foresees only a modest improvement in affordability as the market seeks a more balanced, healthier dynamic.
“Returning to historically affordable levels will be gradual, but 2026 marks a solid step forward,” said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.
Read more about the 2026 housing market outlook here.
